Alberta referendum eve: Carney warns ‘outside forces,’ Poilievre calls quitting ‘the easy way out’

RESULT: Alberta voted to remain in Canada, ~76% to 24%. Full results: Alberta referendum results. On the eve of Monday’s referendum, Prime Minister Mark Carney is making his final – and most direct – case for a united Canada, warning a Calgary rally that outside forces are trying to “break” the country while Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre tells Albertans that “quitting is the easy way out.”

The final-week blitz

Carney has spent two days barnstorming the province: a large pro-Canada rally in Calgary Thursday, a joint appearance with Premier Danielle Smith in Red Deer Friday – where Carney said “Alberta and Canada are walking together” – and a second rally with thousands in Edmonton Friday night hosted by the Forever Canadian campaign.

“This referendum comes at the worst possible time,” Carney said in Calgary. “The world has become more dangerous and divided. Some outside our borders are working to break us so they can own us.” In Edmonton he argued a “decisive result” would settle the separation question for good.

Poilievre, speaking at the Canada Strong and Free Network conference in Calgary Friday, urged Albertans to “lock arms” with fellow Canadians rather than separate at the Canada Strong and Free Network conference in Calgary Friday. Smith, for her part, told Albertans “now is not the time to give up hope” – while making the case for a strong Alberta inside Canada.

What the numbers say

Polling has moved toward staying. An October 8 Leger poll found 70 per cent of Albertans support remaining in Canada – up five points since August – versus 22 per cent who favour beginning separation negotiations. Poll aggregator The Writ’s tracker puts the average around 68-26. More than 400,000 Albertans signed Thomas Lukaszuk’s verified pro-unity petition.

What happens Monday

Albertans vote on 10 referendum questions. The decisive 10th asks whether the province should remain in Canada or instruct the government to begin the legal process toward a binding separation referendum. A “remain” majority effectively closes the question; a vote to proceed would trigger a years-long legal and constitutional process, not immediate independence. We’ll have results coverage Monday night.

Background: advance polls and what’s on the ballot – and more in Politics.

Correction – October 25, 2026: An earlier version quoted Poilievre as saying Alberta’s grievances should be addressed through “restoration, not secession.” The phrase could not be verified in coverage of his October 16 speech and has been removed. Carney’s Red Deer remark has also been corrected to his verified words.