A tough winter at the grocery store: diesel spike threatens higher food prices

Brace for a tougher winter at the checkout: food experts and economists warn a global spike in diesel prices – up 75 per cent year-over-year in August, according to Statistics Canada data cited by food economists – is working its way into Canadian grocery bills, with the pressure expected to build through the winter.

Diesel matters because it moves food: trucks carry nearly everything Canadians eat from processors and ports to distribution centres and stores. When fuel costs jump, shippers add surcharges, and those costs land in shelf prices weeks later.

Where prices stand

Indicator	Latest reading
Food inflation (annual)	2.8% in August; 1.7% in September
Diesel price spike	Up 75% year-over-year in August (StatCan)
Groceries vs. 2019	About 30% higher (TD Economics)

Canadian grocery prices were already about 30 per cent above 2019 levels before this latest squeeze, according to TD Economics, and 29 per cent higher than five years earlier as of August, per Statistics Canada – with meat and coffee among the categories that have seen the biggest proportional jumps this year. Food economist Mike von Massow of the University of Guelph flagged the post-Thanksgiving period as the turning point to watch, as Canadian supply chains shift toward more imported food.

The wildcard is winter itself: harsh weather in growing regions tightens supply on top of the transport-cost squeeze. Shoppers planning holiday budgets may want to assume less relief than usual this year.

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Update – October 25, 2026: Statistics Canada’s September consumer price index, released October 19, showed grocery prices up 1.7 per cent year-over-year – the smallest yearly increase since May 2024 – down from 2.8 per cent in August. The diesel-cost warnings from economists concern pressure expected to build through the winter.