Bank of Canada meets October 28 with a hike now expected — and fixed mortgage rates rising

Update – October 25, 2026: The picture has shifted since this was published on October 13. Scotiabank, Desjardins and BMO economists now say they expect the Bank of Canada to raise its key rate to 2.50 per cent on October 28 – which would be the first hike in more than three years, per Global News.

The Bank of Canada announces its next decision on October 28, and economists now expect a hike to 2.50 per cent rather than another hold – while the fixed-rate side of the mortgage market has already been moving higher for weeks.

Fixed rates are rising

Canada’s six largest banks raised fixed mortgage rates through October – increases of up to half a percentage point, led by TD and RBC, according to Yahoo Finance Canada. The moves track bond-market yields rather than Bank of Canada policy. At the time of those increases, most of the Big Six still expected the Bank of Canada to hold through the end of 2026 – though Scotiabank was already projecting a hike to 2.50 per cent.

What it means for borrowers

Variable-rate borrowers see no change from a hold, and big-bank prime rates sit at 4.45 per cent, unchanged since the Bank of Canada’s last cut, according to the Bank of Canada’s daily digest – a hike would lift prime by the same quarter point. The pressure point has shifted to renewals, with borrowers coming off pandemic-era contracts facing fixed rates that have moved higher through the fall.

The next Bank of Canada announcement is Wednesday, October 28 – the same day CPP and OAS payments land for millions of Canadians.

Update – October 28, 2026: The Bank of Canada hiked to 2.50 per cent, as the economists cited above expected. Full details: Bank of Canada hikes to 2.50%.